By the numbers
Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (24 February - 9 March 2025)
- At least 3 political violence events (2,031 in total since 1 October 2017)
- At least 2 reported fatalities from political violence (5,947 since 1 October 2017)
- 1 reported civilian fatality (2,483 since 1 October 2017)
Overview
Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) has engaged in just one violent action and one looting incident in the past fortnight, likely due to Ramadan, which began on 28 February. ISM’s actions typically decline somewhat during Ramadan. The violent incident was the killing of a civilian just 5 kilometers from Mocímboa da Praia headquarters. Members of the group were also seen arriving in Macomia villages by sea, as well as hard-to-access areas of the Mocímboa da Praia coast, suggesting some freedom of movement at sea. In keeping with the month, al-Naba reports preaching by the group inland in Macomia. Nationally, President Daniel Chapo spoke defiantly in Pemba of the state’s willingness to “shed blood” in facing demonstrations, Naparama militias, and “terrorism.” ACLED data indicates that “terrorism” is facing a less violent response than demonstrations or Naparama. The local response to Chapo’s rally was robust, with Venâncio Mondlane supporters stoning Frelimo supporters on their way to the event.
Situation Summary
At least one killed in attacks on the road to Mocímboa da Praia
There has been relatively little insurgent activity in Cabo Delgado province in the last two weeks, with the exception of incidents in two villages on 4 March dangerously close to Mocímboa da Praia town. One of the attacks targeted the village of Chibau, less than 5 km from the town, where insurgents killed at least one person, looted goods, and kidnapped several people, possibly including women and children, local sources told Cabo Ligado. Four children were later released, according to Carta de Moçambique. Insurgents also stole food from Ntotwe, approximately 15 km from Mocímboa da Praia town.
Insurgents move freely by boat along the coast
Insurgents were also sighted traveling by boat along the coast of the districts of Mocímboa da Praia and Macomia, along which they appear to be moving with some freedom. Around 30 insurgents were spotted in the village of Malinde, less than 10 km north of Mocímboa da Praia town, on 25 February, but they withdrew after being confronted by a Rwandan Defence Force patrol.
Meanwhile, Carta de Moçambique reported that insurgents arrived by boat in the villages of Milamba, Pequeué, and Pangane in Macomia district on 27 February and demanded food and money.
IS claims to have organized a “preaching tour” in Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia
According to the 6 March edition of Islamic State newspaper al-Naba, insurgents preached about fasting for Ramadan in the village of Licobe, between the villages of Chai and Litamanda, just off the N380 highway, on 5 March in the west of Macomia district. The previous week, the newspaper also reported that insurgents undertook a “preaching tour” in unnamed villages in Mocímboa da Praia district.
Frelimo supporters attacked as they gather to hear President Chapo
Supporters being bused in for President Daniel Chapo’s rally in Pemba on 24 February were met by stone-throwing Mondlane supporters. In Mieze in Metuge district, supporters were stoned on their way to Pemba and on their way back. Mondlane supporters also attacked Frelimo rally-goers in Pemba town. Not many attended the rally, at which Chapo called for violent policing of demonstrations.
Focus: Chapo’s targets
Speaking in Pemba on 24 February, President Daniel Chapo declared that state forces must meet demonstrations with the same force they direct at the Naparama militia and combating “terrorism.” Being far from Maputo, Chapo’s remarks in Portuguese were translated to Emakwa for the relatively small audience of Frelimo supporters at the rally. The following day, Chapo stated that, at least in the media, his remarks had been misreported, and that when he spoke of the need to “shed blood” in fighting demonstrations, he meant only violent demonstrations. This was in contrast to his speech at his inauguration, where he paid tribute to demonstrators killed in post-election violence. Chapo’s remarks in Pemba seem to reflect the approach he intends security forces to take. Since his inauguration, police have responded forcefully when faced with demonstrations, and Naparama militia activity. The exception is their posture toward so-called terrorism, meaning the insurgency in northern Mozambique.
On 5 March, police opened fire on a peaceful demonstration led by Mondlane in the Hulene area of Maputo on 5 March. Numerous people were injured in the gunfire, and according to Mondlane’s team, police killed two civilians. This was at least the 11th time that the police had fired on civilians since Chapo’s inauguration on 25 January. However, prior to Hulene, these police interventions had come in response to violent demonstrations or mob violence, where protestors blocked roads, or attacked toll booths.
However, there seems to be some selectivity in the use of state repression against violent demonstrations. For example, when demonstrators raided a prison to release over 200 inmates in Gorongosa, in Sofala province, on 3 February, the police response was restrained. The district administrator spoke of how the security forces managed to “calm tempers” through dialogue.
Police behavior toward the Naparama militias has been similarly vigorous, with at least 17 fatalities in clashes with state forces during February. In each of these cases, the Naparama faced aggressive operations from the police.
However, state forces’ posture toward the insurgency seems at best restrained. In February, ACLED records just four violent events involving ISM and the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM). In each case, ISM was on the offensive. The last recorded offensive action taken by state forces was in December 2024.
The disparity in approaches indicates challenges for the state to contain varied forms of disorder in the country, especially while balancing the need to tolerate — or being seen to tolerate — some degree of dissent. The next test of the state’s attitude to dissent may be 18 March, which Mondlane recently declared as an alternative to Heroes Day, the holiday in February that commemorates those who died in the independence movement.
Round Up
Interior minister found importing firearms through his private company
Mozambican transparency NGO the Center for Public Integrity (Centro de Integridade Pública, or CIP), revealed that a company part-owned by the current minister of the interior, Paulo Chachine, is importing firearms to Mozambique. The fact came to light when the Mozambican tax authority asked for an investigation of a shipment of weapons that it suspected were not for hunting, as the company had declared. CIP pointed out that the inspection would be carried out by people who report to Minister Chachine, in “a clear conflict of interest.” Chachine's company signed a deal in 2023 to import and sell weapons from Panzer Arms, a South African subsidiary of Turkish weapons manufacturer Sasa. As part of the 2023 agreement, it committed to importing at least 1,000 semiautomatic and pump-action shotguns over the following 12 months. At the time that deal was signed, Chachine was a senior officer in the Mozambican police.
IOM and Japan to invest in community policing and border security
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) Mozambique, in partnership with Japan and Mozambique, is launching a project to enhance community policing and border security in Cabo Delgado. The initiative aims to improve law enforcement and foster trust between communities and security forces by establishing 100 “community safety councils,” strengthening 250 “community-based platforms,” building 13 police stations and rehabilitating five existing police stations.
Netherlands commissions inquiry into Palma killings
The Dutch ministry of finance has commissioned an independent report into human rights abuses by Mozambican security forces in relation to the liquefied natural gas project in Palma district. Writing to the Dutch parliament on 4 March, Minister for Finance Eelco Heinen said that the report would examine “the roles of the various security actors in the region and their relationship with project owner Total.” The action arises from reports of Mozambican security forces killing detainees at a temporary detention center next to the LNG plant in 2021, originally published by Politico. The Netherlands has an interest in the project through the firm Van Oord, a subcontractor to the project. In 2021, the Dutch export credit agency provided export credit insurance to Van Oord at a value of $1 billion.
){kind=link}