As the United States navigates the complexities of the 21st century, the global political landscape is continuously shifting. One of the most significant developments this past week has been the inauguration of President Donald Trump’s second term in office, a term that will have wide-ranging implications, not only for the U.S. but also for the broader international community. Among the regions likely to feel the impact of Trump’s second term is Africa, a continent with immense strategic, economic, and geopolitical importance. Understanding the dynamics of Trump’s first term and projecting them forward allows for an informed analysis of how his second term could shape Africa’s future in terms of diplomacy, trade, security, and development.

Diplomacy and Foreign Policy: A Continued “America First” Approach

During his first term, President Trump’s foreign policy was characterised by a “America First” mantra, prioritizing U.S. interests while pulling back from some of the international engagement the U.S. had traditionally maintained. The Trump administration’s approach to Africa was often seen as transactional, with the president emphasising trade over aid. After President Trump won a second term, this pattern would likely continue, with a focus on pragmatic economic relations and minimising U.S. involvement in multilateral initiatives that are not directly aligned with American interests.

Trump’s diplomatic relations with African nations have been relatively pragmatic but have lacked the consistent outreach of his predecessors. For example, his administration made efforts to strengthen ties with countries such as Nigeria and South Africa, while also increasing the U.S. military footprint in certain regions, like the Sahel, to combat extremism. A second term will see more emphasis on such bilateral partnerships, particularly around security cooperation, anti-terrorism efforts, and energy development.

However, Trump’s tendency to engage less in multilateral organisations coupled with his “America First” approach could signal a decline in support for Africa-focused initiatives within international bodies like the United Nations. U.S. influence in African institutions may diminish, and initiatives such as the African Union (AU) or the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) may face challenges in securing U.S. backing.

Economic Policy and Trade Relations

One of the most tangible impacts Trump’s second term could have on Africa would be through his economic policies. In his first term, the administration focused on bilateral trade agreements, promising to replace old trade deals like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) with more tailored agreements that would benefit both U.S. businesses and African countries. Trump’s trade vision for Africa often involved increasing U.S. exports of oil, gas, and minerals, while seeking favourable conditions for American businesses to enter African markets.

A second term could see the continued push for trade deals with key African countries, focusing on sectors like energy, infrastructure, and technology. However, these agreements may come with more stringent terms and conditions, reflecting Trump’s broader aim of ensuring American businesses gain access to Africa’s vast resources. While this might boost economic opportunities for certain African nations, it could also limit the continent’s ability to pursue more diverse and equitable development models that emphasise local empowerment and industry diversification.

Additionally, the emphasis on reducing the U.S. trade deficit could mean less aid for African countries, as Trump might push for more market-driven solutions to Africa’s challenges. The administration’s approach to aid may see a shift from traditional development assistance towards private sector investments and development through business deals and partnerships.

Security and Military Engagement

Security and military engagement were central to Trump’s first term, particularly in Africa. The U.S. maintained military presence in regions facing significant threats from extremist groups, such as in the Sahel, Somalia, and Nigeria. President Trump also sought to reduce American troop numbers in areas where conflicts were seen as less directly related to U.S. national security interests.

In his second term, the administration may continue this strategy of prioritising counterterrorism operations and strengthening partnerships with African countries in fighting extremist organisations. However, Trump’s stance on foreign military engagements could shift, depending on how much political capital he is willing to invest in Africa. Military partnerships with countries like Uganda, Kenya, and Niger, as well as security cooperation with the G5 Sahel (Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad), may continue to deepen. At the same time, Trump’s preference for reducing American military presence abroad could lead to the downsizing or re-evaluation of some of the U.S. military operations in Africa, potentially leaving African governments to handle more security challenges independently.

Another potential outcome of a second Trump term would be an even greater emphasis on regional security and African-led initiatives. This could manifest in the U.S. supporting African peacekeeping missions or the African Standby Force, with the aim of empowering African nations to take the lead in maintaining peace and security across the continent.

Health, Environment, and Climate Change

In his first term, President Trump’s policies on climate change were heavily criticised for being regressive. The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his emphasis on fossil fuel development at home were major points of contention. For African countries, where climate change poses a significant threat to food security, water resources, and overall development, Trump’s environmental policies could have severe consequences. His second term could result in continued U.S. disengagement from international climate initiatives, making it more difficult for Africa to secure international funding and cooperation on climate resilience projects.

However, Trump’s focus on energy independence could lead to more U.S. investments in African oil and gas industries, which might provide short-term economic benefits but could exacerbate environmental challenges in the long term. African nations, which are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change, may find themselves increasingly reliant on American business interests rather than on global efforts to mitigate climate-related risks.

In terms of health, the Trump administration’s global health initiatives during his first term were focused on HIV/AIDS, with substantial funding for programs like PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief). While this could continue in a second term, there is likely to be less focus on broader health infrastructure in Africa, such as public health systems and health education, unless it directly serves U.S. interests or aids in containing pandemics like Ebola or COVID-19. The withdrawal from WHO will definitely have an effect on tr African continent. A painful effect yet to be felt.

Navigating Uncertainty in Africa-U.S. Relations

A second term for President Trump would likely reinforce the policies of his first term, characterized by an “America First” approach that prioritises trade, security, and strategic partnerships over multilateral cooperation and aid. While African nations may benefit from direct trade and security partnerships with the U.S., the broader continent may experience a decrease in support for regional development initiatives, climate resilience, and multilateral peacebuilding efforts.

The Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy could also lead to deeper economic ties with resource-rich African countries, but may also leave many African nations vulnerable to global economic shifts and the whims of market forces. In sum, while some African countries may find opportunities in a second term of Trump, the continent as a whole may face an uncertain future with respect to international cooperation and development under his leadership. African nations will need to diversify their diplomatic and economic partnerships, exploring opportunities beyond the U.S., to secure a more stable and sustainable future.

KHOTSO. PULA. NALA

BY ABUBACAR JABBIE