Among the many consequences of Bangladesh’s growing bonhomie with Pakistan seems to be the emergence of a united front of Rohingya armed groups that could have a far-reaching impact on the region, including India.
On 25 December, representatives from four outfits—Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), Islami Mahaz, Arakan National Defence Force (ANDF), and the Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA)—shared the dais at a refugee camp in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar following a new alliance called the Four Brothers’ Alliance or The Rohingya Army among these groups.
Thousands of refugees had gathered to witness the event at Kutupalong in Cox’s Bazar. The coalition was hammered out after a series of brainstorming sessions among the functionaries of these outfits reportedly for the past several weeks.
Sources in Cox’s Bazar disclosed that Pakistan’s spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was engaged in the spadework to convince the armed groups to collaborate for ‘effective coordination’ in their campaign to recover their homeland in Myanmar. Assisting the ISI was a section of Bangladesh government officials who had the approval of the new regime in Dhaka.
The development comes amid reports of Pakistan’s renewed presence in Bangladesh after the fall of the Awami League-led government in August. An agreement firmed up between the two countries will also allow the Pakistan military to train its Bangladeshi counterpart from next month.
Rationale of the United Front
The stated objective of the Rohingya outfits is to regain the territory in Myanmar from where they had been evicted in batches beginning from the late seventies. Thousands of Rohingya were again compelled to leave their homes two months ago when the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, launched a full-scale campaign against the military to liberate the border zones of Maungdaw bordering Bangladesh. The district is now completely under the control of the Arakan Army.
The Rohingya community in Myanmar is currently estimated to be about a million, spread over different townships in Rakhine State and a few families at Paletwa in southern Chin State that I observed during my recent travel to the region. They comprise about 70 per cent of the population, and a majority only in Maungdaw. The Rohingya outfits are active mostly in Maungdaw and without any support base in other parts of Rakhine State.
The Rohingya armed groups suffer from an acute shortage of weapons, if not cadres. Months before the Arakan Army occupied Maungdaw, the military had convinced three groups—ARSA, RSO, and ARA—to collaborate in resisting the Arakan Army. The military had forcibly conscripted hundreds of Rohingya youths and provided pistols and G-3 rifles to the outfits, but they were no match against the sophisticated weaponry of the Arakan Army.
A source in Cox’s Bazar privy to the recent developments in the refugee camps claimed that the Rohingya groups have been assured of weapons and explosives for their campaign in Myanmar. “A precondition laid down by the masterminds of the project was that all the groups must fight together on a common platform. It was an offer that they could not refuse,” said the source. Some posts on social media alleged that weapons and explosives are being distributed to ARSA inside the refugee camps.
An Indian government official was of the opinion that linkages with ISI offered the Rohingya groups better chances of gaining access to a wider network for procuring the ingredients necessary to wage war in Myanmar than what would have been possible with Bangladesh’s spy agency Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI).
RSO was propped up by DGFI against ARSA
The Bangladesh government could be confronted with a more complex situation in the refugee camps following the new alliance among the Rohingya groups. Two years ago, the government had launched an investigation into ARSA’s role in the killing of DGFI officer Rizwan Rushdee and injuring of a Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) member during an anti-smuggling operation in Bandarban.
Security forces in Bangladesh had apprehended several ARSA leaders, the latest as recent as September last year, when Nurul Islam was arrested from a refugee camp with a G-3 rifle and many rounds of ammunition. Last year, Samiuddin was nabbed during a raid from a camp in Kutupalong. He was wanted for the murder of Mohibullah, the chairman of the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, in 2021 and the killing of Rizwan Rushdee.
The DGFI had also decided to support the RSO as a countermeasure against the ARSA. RSO had been dormant for almost the past two decades and weakened after a split years ago. Last year in January, the RSO launched an operation to evict ARSA from the areas along the country’s border with Myanmar with support from DGFI and Rapid Action Battalion (RAB). In Myanmar, however, both RSO and ARSA had joined hands with the military against the Arakan Army and were engaged in battles before Maungdaw was liberated in November.
Whether these outfits can engage in a campaign jointly against the Arakan Army remains to be seen given the rivalry and differences among them. But the operations against ARSA by the Bangladesh security forces will certainly draw to a close after the alliance since it has the blessings of the government. On 8 January, Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) Mizanur Rahman encouraged refugees to engage in armed conflict in Myanmar. Also, as sources claimed, ARSA has assured DGFI and the security forces that it will abstain from criminal activities and any conduct harmful to the interests of Bangladesh.
Rohingya outfits’ past linkages with Pakistan
The linkages of Rohingya outfits with radical Islamist organisations had been known over the past many years. In 2016, a report by the International Crisis Group mentions that functionaries of RSO and the Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front (ARIF) had attended a ‘guerrilla war course’ in Libya and Afghanistan. The report adds that the RSO was also assisted with training by the Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB).
Such reports have surfaced in the media at regular intervals, underscoring the relationship of the Rohingya groups with jihadi organisations. A report in 2021 refers to the support provided by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) to these groups at Cox’s Bazar and Bandarban in Bangladesh. Further, it mentions another Rohingya group, Aqa Mul Mujahideen (AMM), as having ‘close ties’ with LeT and the Taliban (in Pakistan) that included training in weapons.
The ISI could not have remained unaware of these developments given its proximity with radical Islamist terror groups across South Asia and Afghanistan. The Indian government’s view that Rohingya outfits have active linkages with ISI was shared by the previous regime in Bangladesh, which also might have been a factor for the latter’s decision to crack the whip against ARSA.
Saleem Samad, an award-winning journalist in Bangladesh, wrote last year that “Myanmar blames Pakistan’s dreaded spy agency ISI for its share in mentoring the jihadist outfit. Their theory that ARSA has been raised, funded, provides logistics, and indoctrination was masterminded by ISI and is also believed by both Bangladesh and India.”
Sources were of the view that another recent development at the refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar has been the entry of the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), which identifies itself as an affiliate of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). That AQIS is a front of the ISI having intimate ties with the LeT was revealed in a chargesheet in 2016 by Delhi Police. A key operative of the organisation is Farhatullah Ghori, who is also a senior member of the LeT and responsible for the Gujarat Akshardham attack.
Implications of the new alliance
A pertinent question is whether the alliance of the Rohingya outfits can recover their homeland in Myanmar, which could be a possibility only if the Arakan Army is militarily compelled to relinquish Maungdaw. The Arakan Army’s strength is estimated to be between 40,000 and 50,000 cadres, including 10,000 reserves. Besides Rakhine State and southern Chin State, it has deployed troops in other regions of Myanmar, including Sagaing Region, Magway Region, and in the states of Shan, Kachin, and Kayin for assisting other resistance groups fighting the junta.
So the possibility of the Arakan Army suffering major reverses in Rakhine State appears to be a dim possibility. A likely scenario could be the typical hit-and-run guerrilla tactics by the Rohingya outfits along the border zone of Maungdaw, where they still command support among the community. In the end, the civilian populace could be caught in the crossfire, compelling more to relocate from their homes in Rakhine State.
The UN has decided to convene a ‘high-level conference’ for a ‘time-bound plan’ to resolve the Rohingya crisis following Bangladesh’s persistent lobbying at the international fora. But the success of such conclaves would be doubtful if unrest flares up along the border of the twin countries. Continuing operations by the terror groups might compel the Arakan Army to harden its stance on repatriation.
Incidentally, the DGFI had engaged the Arakan Army in several rounds of negotiations months ago to explore the feasibility of repatriation of the refugees to Myanmar. It remains to be seen if the talks are continued in the backdrop of the new alliance of the Rohingya outfits in which the DGFI had an active role.
A section of Indian government officials is of the firm opinion that ISI’s primary intent is not so much to support the Rohingya cause in Myanmar as its objective to trigger disturbances in India. “Transforming the refugee camps into hotbeds of terror and making them accessible to radical Islamist outfits will help Pakistan to step up operations in India. They (Rohingya) are extremely vulnerable and cannon fodder for the ISI and its affiliates such as AQIS,” an official said.
That some radicals among the Rohingya and Bangladeshi nationals have infiltrated into India and sleeper cells created are not in doubt. According to the Indian government, the influx is organised and facilitated by agents and touts. Three years ago, a probe by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) unravelled a five-layered trafficking network of the Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh into India.
Terror modules of Islamist outfits have also been unearthed at regular intervals in India where Bangladeshi nationals were found to have been actively engaged. Eight persons were arrested last month, including a Bangladeshi citizen belonging to the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT).
The infiltrators’ advantage stems from multiple factors, including gaps along the India-Bangladesh border, the existence of criminal syndicates, and their linkages with illegal immigrants in different states of the country. The government has failed to implement stringent preventive measures and long- and short-term policies to identify them.
Cox’s Bazar is bursting at the seams with appalling conditions in the refugee camps. Only a handful among them will have funds to procure passports for emigrating to other countries or undertake the perilous boat journeys to Southeast Asia. The easier option for the majority of them would be crossing over to India, even if there is a possibility of getting apprehended and pushed back to Bangladesh or incarcerated in detention centres.
The writer is a senior journalist in Assam. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.